
I am down nearly 50% since my purchase on March 10th. I have to cut my losses this coming week. This is my best option because CCRT is performing decent compared the the Financial sector, specifically the Yahoo credit services index.
Menta Capital LLC has been buying up CCRT, most likely contributing to its recent popularity and rising stock price. They bought 49,800 shares and reported it a day ago 05/07/08 which perfectly coincides with the acquisition trends in the stock price. What happens next week when CCRT is back on the market at 10.50? Will other big players devalue the company due to its obvious weaknesses and risk exposure? I don't think the stock price will stay above 10, the question is how far will it go down, and in what time span, before the end of June?
It didn't hit 08Q1earnings May 7th, and it dropped ~7% that day but it has been above 10 since then. I have until the third week of July for this option and I think a dramatic pullback would not be surprising. Still, I want to get out of this position and move on to a different play. Chalk it up as a loss on the big board and move on. This is one of the few times I'm glad that this is all paper.
The gameplan:
Watch the markets this week and forecast general trend. Follow the financial sector and compare CompuCredit's performance with the pack. If it looks like it's outperforming and there is no chance any major news announcement to come the following 2 weeks, I will find a good selling point and cut my losses short.
If CompuCredit appears weak int eh financial sector, specifically credit services industry I will think about holding on to it. This will be decided based on what news events, announcements might lie ahead. If there are indicators of a broad market pullback based on high oil prices, economic indicator releases, I think I will still have a chance to make money.
Try to cap loss at 10%. If it looks like it's only getting worse sell immediately at 50%. Don't wait for any chance of being in the green. It's too risky, just get out of the position and move on. Fast, aggressive, next play, next spin.
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Friday, May 9, 2008
My CCRT Position is Sinking
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